Welcome all to the first instalment of this five part series of predictions. The World Cup is just two days away now, with the hosts Brazil facing Croatia at 9pm UK time. Henceforth it seems like the predictions should get underway by looking at the favourites to win the greatest show on earth.
The much heralded fact that a European nation has never won a World Cup in South America is an ominous omen for Europe’s elite. While stats and facts are often deemed irrelevant and futile because of football’s unpredictable nature, I think this one could remain intact.
For me, Brazil and Argentina look the most likely to claim the golden globe. The suggestion that the former will reign victorious could be seen as a naïve and easy choice that some punter down the pub, who doesn’t delve into football’s many variables, would select because of their home advantage and previous successes. However, fuse together some other significant factors and the suggestion doesn’t appear so impulsive…
Suggesting that Brazil’s triumph at the 2013 Confederation’s Cup guarantees victory is, of course, absolutely incorrect and smacks of folly. Brazil have won the last two Confederations tournaments prior to the previous summer’s and in the two World Cup’s that proceeded them, the yellow and blues failed to deliver. Ironically, Brazil went onto win the 2002 World Cup, as we all know, despite finishing in fourth place at the 2001 Confederations Cup.
Instead, O Selecao’s conquest at last summer’s hugely enjoyable Confederation’s Cup served to highlight both the quality of Brazil’s team and the temporary demise of Spain. Fears surrounding Brazil’s lack of a renowned and prolific number nine were arguably quelled when Fred indicated to the world that his contribution was imperative for Brazil’s game. This was seen only three minutes into their opening match, when the curiously named striker expertly chested down a driven Marcelo pass, so Neymar could volley superbly past the despairing Japanese goalkeeper.
It truly was an exquisite, beautiful goal. While Fred may not be your typical, conventional Brazilian number nine, a la Pele or Ronaldo, he is ultimately the man who allows this beautiful football to occur. His inclusion means the likes of Neymar and Hulk can flourish.
Fred is perfectly capable of leading Brazil’s line but the lack of strikers for cover is alarming. Fortunately for Big Phil Scolari, he certainly doesn’t have such selection headaches elsewhere on the pitch. Few other teams, hence my choice of Brazil for World Cup favourites, can boast such a plethora of defence and midfield options.
Scolari’s back four is resolute, reliable and adventurous; 3 quarters of Brazil’s defence in Alves, Luiz and Silva could be part of PSG’s defence next season, but there cohesion and collaboration is already well tested. The latter two’s firm partnership is the reason why the oft precarious Luiz gets in ahead of Munich’s Dante, and the pace and width Alves and Marcelo supply are integral as it allows Neymar and Hulk to cut inside onto their stonger feet. Despite their attacking prowess ironically being the focal point of their game, Marcelo and Alves are still adequate defensively, their speed often compensating for any lapses.
If the wing backs are bombarding the opposition high up the pitch the defensive midfielders provide reliable cover. Last summer’s Confederation’s saw Luis Gustavo and Paulinho form a formidable partnership in the middle. Add the likes of Ramires, Hernanes and Fernandinho and Brazil’s holding midfield options are arguably the best in the world. Football is dominated by 4231’s in the modern game so the role of the anchorman/ anchormen is vital. Brazil’s quality here may be of paramount importance in deciding who lifts the trophy.
Finally, Big Phil’s World Cup experience obviously counts for something. As we know he guided Brazil to glory in 2002, and led Portugal to a very respectable fourth place in 2006. Since he took over from Menezes in 2012 Scolari has created a stable, well-functioning squad that desperately needed steadying after the rocky rides endured under Dunga and the aforementioned Menezes. His decisions to exclude highly performing players from across the globe, including Coutinho, Miranda, Filipe Luis, Lucas Moura and favourites from yesteryear Ronaldinho and Kaka indicate the ruthlessness of the moustached manager. Clearly he demands respect and expects exceptional quality and total commitment from the players he does select, which again may just be the key factor in deciding this year’s victor.
My other favourites, admittedly behind Brazil, are their South American neighbours Argentina. While Brazilian’s
are content with Fred as their centre forward, Argentine’s salivate at the thought of their offensive strength. The quad-force of Di Maria behind Messi, Aguero and Higuain could be one of the most potent attacks world football has ever witnessed. The box to box energy of the Real Madrid man is hugely effective as Sabella’s Argentina play with a style more closely linked to Real Madrid than Di Maria’s compatriot, Lionel Messi’s club, Barcelona. With the pace these four possess counter attacks could be devastating. Higuain acts as the reference point of the strikeforce, with Messi and Aguero flanking him. The combination of these two should be emphatic as they have been playing together since they were around 12 years old. This system also works for Higuain, as he collected 17 goals for his Serie A side Napoli playing in a similar system, with Insigne and Callejon either side of him.
You feel that with Messi now being 26, this could be his last chance to seal his immortality as a true footballing great. Of course a footballer’s age doesn’t always belie their abilities; Ronaldo is arguably at his peak at 29. However Messi’s key characteristics that make him so extraordinary, like his phenomenal dribbling, unbelievable balance and incredible pace are almost certainly likely to be inferior at his next World Cup. Obviously every player endeavours to give 100% at the World Cup, but this added incentive may lead to Messi evoking even more effort and consequently galvanising his team and his nation to glory.
Unfortunately though there is a colossal juxtaposition in the Argentine team. While the holding midfielders Mascherano and Gago are important yet not among the world’s finest, Argentinia’s prowess starts to diminish from there. The expertise of the attack and the defence is completely polarising; Messi and co. form one of the deadliest strikeforces ever to be seen at the top of the field whereas at the foot of it, the players are average at best. Ezequiel Garay is renowned for being solid yet has never really been tested in an elite league; Zabaleta had a fine season for Manchester City but his willingness to get forward could leave Argentina vulnerable at the back. Fernandez is good at Fiorentina yet again he isn’t high quality, and the left back, Marcos Rojo, is a centre back by trade and is often called out for being Argentina’s weak link. The ‘keeper, Sergio Romero, was only the number two shot-stopper at Monaco this season, again signalling Argentina’s mixture of positional fortunes.
Henceforth it is because of Argentina’s perennial defensive imperfections that Brazil are more likely to secure glory this summer. But why can’t Europe’s elite win this summer?
France, Italy and obviously Spain and Germany are Europe’s best representatives this June and July but for copious reasons I can’t see them emulating Brazil or Argentina.
France’s squad is young, vibrant and very, very exciting. Pogba, Varane, Griezemann, Digne and Lloris will all be among the world’s finest (If they’re not already) by the next World Cup. Despite playing lowly Jamaica, Les Bleus stormed to an 8-0 victory just a few days ago, minus Franck Ribery. Evidently they are a force to be reckoned with but I think ultimately the young player’s inexperience, and the seemingly inevitable infighting and turmoil that follows France at every international tournament will be their downfall.
Italy’s fate has been mixed since their dreadful 2010 World Cup campaign, reaching the final but ultimately losing 4-0 to a ubiquitously superior Spain team, followed by a fair showing at 2013’s Confederation’s. Combined with the fact that Italy have won one in eight going into their opener against England, which includes a dismal 1-1 draw versus Luxembourg, most of the signs point towards an underwhelming 2014 performance. Italy are situated in the ‘group of death’ too, so qualification for the last 16 should be difficult, but then again, Italy are about as predictable as the UK’s weather and could surprise us all, just like eight years ago.
Germany are like a combination of Brazil and Italy, but with both positive and negative consequences. Like Brazil they have an unfathomable range of options in midfield with Toni Kroos, Schweinstiger, Muller, Khedira, Draxler, Bender and more all vying for a starting place. However like Argentina, they do have some defensive issues. Lahm, Mertesacker, Hummels and Howedes are all short on pace and liable to exposure once Germany press high up the pitch. Jerome Boateng may be forced to fill in at left back, an unnatural position – if Joachim Low decides Dortmund’s Durm isn’t experienced enough. Finally their final third options aren’t that potent either. Miroslav Klose, at 36 years old, is their only recognised out and out number nine. The veteran has an exceptional World Cup record but whether he can supply the goals in the absence of left wing genius Marco Reus is yet to be seen.
Spain have their downfalls, too. They are strong all over the pitch, having numerous options and world class players in midfield, attack and defence, as well as goalkeeper. The concern for me, though, is the age of their squad. The lynchpins of their successes in 2008, 2010 and 2012 are ageing into their mid/late 30’s now. Casillas may not be as dependable any more, as seen by his error in the Champions League final. Xavi isn’t always regular starter for Barcelona anymore, Iniesta has lost some of the fluidity that saw him mentioned in the same breath as Messi and Ronaldo and David Villa has reached the age where he feels the need to move to America to seek one last pay day. Despite the emergence of capable replacements in De Gea, Koke and Diego Costa and the maintenance of their infamous possession based football, whether or not Spain can continue to achieve glory without the perpetual influence of their most successful ever players remains, as displayed in the mauling they received from Brazil in last year’s Confederation’s final, dubious.
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Thank you for reading. All comments, criticisms, feedback is greatly appreciated, be it positive or negative. In the coming days I will be writing about the teams which I think will be the most exciting, the teams I feel will under perform, this year’s golden boot winner and how England will fare this summer.
Links:
http://www.zonalmarking.net/category/world-cup-2014/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_Confederations_Cup
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/27388351
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/22896226
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